Decisions, complexity and conflicts

Code 636AA
Credits 6

Learning outcomes

To provide formal tools, both quantitative and qualitative, for decision aid, in complex social, political, environmental or economic systems. To provide students with the ability to formulate and structure, using a systemic approach, a problem, to build models, to analyze and evaluate possible alternative decisions, and to manage the activities required to implement the decisions taken.

Syllabus
1. Problems and problem structuring methods
- Decision-making processes.
- Systems analysis and critical systems thinking .
- Dynamic analysis of systems.
- Self-reinforcing cycles, flows and levels.
2. System Dynamics
- System dynamics' language.
- levels, flows and delays.
- Examples (environmental sustainability, action-reaction processes, a model of "price war", ...).
3. Cooperation, competition and exploitation
- A model of production and allocation of resources.
- Elements of game theory, Nash equilibrium.
- The prisoner's dilemma and applications.
- The Tragedy of the Commons.
4. "Social Choice" and voting theory
- Orders and preferences.
- Condorcet and Borda voting and their variants.
- Arrow's impossibility theorem and its consequences.
- Consensus methods.
5. Electoral Systems
- Legislative apportionment and proportional representation: greatest-remainder method, divisor methods, …
- Definition of electoral districts.
- Some paradoxes.
- Analysis of some electoral systems.
6. Analysis and evaluation of projects
- Cost-benefit analysis: variants and limitations.
- Cost effectiveness analysis.
- Multi-criteria analysis.
- ELECTRE methods.
7. Indices and measures
- Measures and quantitative information: quality, uncertainty and subjectivity.
- Development indices.
- Inequality indices.
- Human Development Index.